Schedule: FAA flight plans.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4022
SCHEDULED
Friday, October 30 Today
WN 4022 · SNA → SMF
departs 6:39 PM PT · arrives 8:19 PM PT
Your aircraft is N956WN (B737), coming in as WN 4022 from LAS: still at LAS, due off about 6:48 PM PT, 53 min after the scheduled departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1 37%
Mon 11/2 24%
Thu 11/5 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
100%
chance · ±0 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
100%
Leave 15+ late
100%
Arrive 1h+ late
82%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 90 min after the scheduled departure, about 78 min late from the gate after a typical 12-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 50%.
+19 pts
100%
Yes 100%
No <1%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 90 min after the scheduled departure, about 78 min late from the gate after a typical 12-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 59%.
+15 pts
100%
Yes 100%
No 0%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 90 min after the scheduled departure, about 78 min late from the gate after a typical 12-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 20%.
+13 pts
82%
Yes 82%
No 18%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from SNA are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
This flight has been late 13% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.07 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.