Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4022
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4022 · SNA → SMF
departs 6:06 PM PT · arrives 7:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 37%
Mon 11/2 24%
Thu 11/5 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±5 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from SNA are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.09 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.