Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4169
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4169 · TPA → HOU
departs 12:53 PM ET · arrives 2:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 16%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at TPA that day
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.