Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4169
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 4169 · TPA → HOU
departs 12:39 PM ET · arrives 2:01 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30 26%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.