WN 4191 · TPA → PIT

departs 9:51 PM ET · arrives 12:21 AM ET

Your aircraft is N8996Q (B38M), coming in as WN 3447 from SAT: landed 9:02 PM ET.

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at TPA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4191 · TPA → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?