Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4191
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 4191 · TPA → PIT
departs 9:40 PM ET · arrives 12:12 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 30%
Tue 11/3 22%
Wed 11/4 22%
Thu 11/5 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,767 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.62 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.