WN 4224 · SAN → HNL

took off 6:52 PM PT · expected to land 9:27 PM HT (scheduled 6:31 PM PT → 10:08 PM HT)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HNL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at HNL that day

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

HNL (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4224 · SAN → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?