Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4224
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
WN 4224 · SAN → HNL
departs 6:19 PM PT · arrives 9:58 PM HT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 40%
Tue 11/3 30%
Wed 11/4 29%
Thu 11/5 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±4 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.