Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4505
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4505 · SAN → HOU
departs 2:23 PM PT · arrives 7:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 39%
Tue 11/3 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.