Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4505
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 4505 · SAN → HOU
departs 11:40 AM PT · arrives 4:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29 38%
Fri 10/30 37%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 39%
Tue 11/3 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↑
11am departures from SAN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.