Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 460
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
WN 460 · MCO → BHM
departs 4:27 PM ET · arrives 5:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 39%
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,967 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
BHM (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.