Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 460
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 460 · MCO → BHM
departs 3:28 PM ET · arrives 4:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Fri 10/30 32%
Sat 10/31
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
BHM (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.