Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 4866 · SAN → OAK
departs 7:22 AM PT · arrives 8:58 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Thu 10/29 7%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 47%
Mon 11/2 12%
Tue 11/3 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
SAN is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into OAK at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.