Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 504
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 504 · BNA → CHS
departs 7:04 PM CT · arrives 9:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29 26%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 22%
Mon 11/2 29%
Tue 11/3 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at CHS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to CHS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 48% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CHS
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CHS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.