Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 630
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 630 · SNA → SJD
departs 10:08 AM PT · arrives 12:40 PM MST
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29 10%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 8%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 11%
Tue 11/3 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJD more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SJD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJD?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJD
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Arrivals into SJD at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SJD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.