Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 764
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
WN 764 · PVR → SNA
departs 12:24 PM CST · arrives 2:31 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave PVR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
PVR is busy at that time
Weather at each end
PVR (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.