Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 764
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
WN 764 · PVR → SNA
departs 12:35 PM CST · arrives 3:03 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30 27%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave PVR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SNA at that hour are often late
↑
PVR is busy at that time
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PVR (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,867 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.