WN 859 · DEN → MSY

left the gate 5:00 PM MT · taxiing (scheduled 5:01 PM MT → 8:46 PM CT)

Your aircraft is N7823A (B737), coming in as WN 859 from BUR: landed 4:02 PM MT.

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at DEN that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 859 · DEN → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?