Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 859
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
WN 859 · DEN → AUS
departs 4:26 PM MT · arrives 7:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 36%
Thu 11/5 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±7 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.