Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 791
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
Y4 791 · MIA → MEX
departs 5:17 PM ET · arrives 6:35 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Wed 10/28 15%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEX?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
5pm departures from MIA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
MEX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.