Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3491
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 3491 · CLT → ORD
departs 3:12 PM ET · arrives 4:38 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from CLT are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.