Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4523
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 4523 · MSN → DCA
departs 6:16 PM CT · arrives 9:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 14%
Tue 11/3 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSN
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MSN (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.