Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5630
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 5630 · CLT → BOS
departs 2:32 PM ET · arrives 4:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 15%
Tue 11/3 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from CLT are often late
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.