Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5704
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 5704 · BOS → DCA
departs 9:48 PM ET · arrives 11:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 13%
Tue 11/3 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.