Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5837
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 5837 · CLT → BOS
departs 6:28 PM ET · arrives 8:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 16%
Tue 11/3 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from CLT are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.