Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1170 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 1170 · DFW → COS

departs 1:58 PM CT · arrives 2:56 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to COS?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ COS usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at COS

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

COS (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1170 · DFW → COS

Odds over time

How late will it get to COS?