Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1272 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 1272 · MIA → BDL

departs 8:44 PM ET · arrives 11:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BDL?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BDL

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.49 in

BDL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1272 · MIA → BDL

Odds over time

How late will it get to BDL?