AA 1406 · DFW → SAT

departs 8:48 PM CT · arrives 10:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

SAT (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1406 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?