Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1406 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1406 · DFW → SAT

departs 8:48 PM CT · arrives 10:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±8 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DFW that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.01 in

SAT (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1406 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?