Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1427 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 1427 · MIA → AUS

departs 8:38 PM ET · arrives 10:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at AUS that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.49 in

AUS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1427 · MIA → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?