Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1459 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 1459 · CLT → MCO

departs 7:11 PM ET · arrives 8:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1459 · CLT → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?