Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1486 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 1486 · CLT → BUF

departs 5:12 PM ET · arrives 7:04 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1486 · CLT → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?