Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1499 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 1499 · CLT → LAX

departs 4:50 PM ET · arrives 6:55 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1499 · CLT → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?