Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1594 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 1594 · MIA → STL

departs 7:52 PM ET · arrives 9:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.49 in

STL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1594 · MIA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?