Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1638 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 1638 · PHX → DEN

departs 7:05 PM MT · arrives 9:54 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±6 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at DEN that day

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.13 in

DEN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1638 · PHX → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?