Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1638 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

AA 1638 · PHX → DEN

departs 7:17 PM MT · arrives 9:17 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±8 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip1.78 in

DEN (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1638 · PHX → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?