Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1975 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 1975 · TPA → CLT

departs 3:31 PM ET · arrives 5:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1975 · TPA → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?