Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2014 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 2014 · DFW → TUL

departs 8:40 PM CT · arrives 9:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±6 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TUL?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at TUL that day

↓ TUL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.18 in

TUL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,133 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2014 · DFW → TUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUL?