AA 2158 · ORD → SFO

departs 9:34 PM CT · arrives 12:36 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±10 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2158 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?