Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2158 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 2158 · ORD → SFO

departs 9:43 PM CT · arrives 12:48 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±11 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,867 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

SFO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2158 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?