Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2518 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 2518 · MIA → IND

departs 8:27 PM ET · arrives 11:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±3 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IND?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IND

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.49 in

IND (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2518 · MIA → IND

Odds over time

How late will it get to IND?