Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2634 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 2634 · MIA → ORD

departs 9:17 PM ET · arrives 11:37 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ ORD usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.49 in

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2634 · MIA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?