Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2649 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 2649 · MIA → DTW

departs 7:46 PM ET · arrives 10:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.60 in

DTW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2649 · MIA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?