AA 2654 · PHX → MIA

departs 11:05 PM MT · arrives 5:28 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±8 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ 11pm departures from PHX are usually not late

↓ PHX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.34 in

MIA (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2654 · PHX → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?