Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3150 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 3150 · PHX → SBP

departs 4:45 PM MT · arrives 6:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBP?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Arrivals into SBP at that hour are usually not late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

SBP (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3150 · PHX → SBP

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBP?