AA 564 · ORD → BUF

departs 9:17 PM CT · arrives 12:08 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

BUF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 564 · ORD → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?