Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 564 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 2

AA 564 · ORD → BUF

departs 9:36 PM CT · arrives 12:18 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.05 in

BUF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 564 · ORD → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?