Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 691 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 691 · PHX → AUS

departs 7:44 PM MT · arrives 11:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±6 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at AUS that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.13 in

AUS (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 691 · PHX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?