Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 691 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1 Tomorrow

AA 691 · PHX → AUS

departs 7:44 PM MT · arrives 10:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±3 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at PHX that day

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip1.78 in

AUS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 691 · PHX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?