Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 841 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 841 · CLT → AUS

departs 7:08 PM ET · arrives 8:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at AUS that day

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 841 · CLT → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?